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A Quick Overview of Global Prospects: Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Storms

A major source of Vietnam’s economic expansion has been exports, which have grown over 70% from 2000 to 2004, and twelve times in dollars since 1991! Over half of these exports are sold to rich countries (or groups of countries) such as Japan, the EU, and the US. China and ASEAN are also important markets. While it is always possible to gain market share relative to other nations, it is easier if the economies of Vietnam’s customers are growing rapidly. Will this be the case?

 

There are various growth forecasts and they are often revised in light of new data and events. Therefore, it may not be worthwhile putting too much weight on any one set of numbers. In addition, there are major uncertainties which would result in very different outcomes if any one event were to materialize. One example of great current concern is the potential catastrophic weakness of the dollar. This is discussed below. Other events, such as a sudden slowdown in China, a terrorist attack that slows shipping, or a disruption in world oil supplies cannot be ruled out either. It is nearly impossible to plan for these disruptions, aside from things like stockpiles of oil products. The best way to cope is to have a diversified and flexible economy – something that Vietnam has now.

Type:
Policy Research
Language:
English
Date Published:
Dec 01, 2004
Pages:
6
Author:
David O. Dapice

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