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Vietnam and the World economy: The Best or Worst of Times?

 

These are confusing times. Some attribute the slowdown in Vietnam's FDI, exports and GDP growth this year as being due to "the worst global recession in nearly forty years." [Vietnam Economic Monitor, Spring 2002, p. 3] and argue that basic policy is sound and will soon show results when the world economy improves. Yet the IMF in its April 2002 World Economic Outlook has a box "Was It a Global Recession?" and calls the world slowdown one of the mildest experienced. It is true that there was a 2.5% slowdown in GDP growth of the rich nations from 2000 to 2001, and world trade volume growth slowed from 13% in 2000 to near zero in 2001. Still, the fact that the US had a 5.6% growth rate in the first quarter of 2002, and that Japan's economy also seems to be poised for growth rather than contraction, would seem to support the "slowdown" more than the "severe recession" position. Indeed, in general, it appears that 2002 will be a year of recovery for the global economy with positive but not robust growth. So the external environment will allow but not strongly support an export led growth pattern.

Type:
Policy Research
Language:
English
Date Published:
Jun 01, 2002
Pages:
5
Author:
David O. Dapice

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